HAPPI publications


Lewis, S., King, A., Mitchell, D. "Australia’s unprecedented future temperature extremes under Paris limits to warming". Geophysical Research Letters. 2017. accepted.

Mitchell, D., AchutaRao, K., Allen, M., Bethke, I., Forster, P., Fuglestvedt, J., Gillett, N., Haustein, K., Iverson, T., Massey, N., Schleussner, C.-F., Scinocca, J., Seland, Ø., Shiogama, H., Shuckburgh, E., Sparrow, S., Stone, D., Wallom, D., Wehner, M., and Zaaboul, R.: Half a degree Additional warming, Projections, Prognosis and Impacts (HAPPI): Background and Experimental Design,Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 571–583, 2017 www.geosci-model-dev.net/10/571/2017/ doi:10.5194/gmd-10-571-2017.

Mitchell, D., James, R., Forster, P., Betts, R., Shiogama, H., Allen, M. "Realizing the impacts of a 1.5C warmer world". Nature Climate Change 2016. doi:10.1038/nclimate3055.

Seneviratne et al. "Climate extremes, land-climate feedbacks, and land-use forcing at 1.5°C". Phil. Trans. Roy. Soc. A. Accepted. 

Wehner et al. "Changes in extremely hot days under stabilized 1.5oC and 2.0oC global warming scenarios as simulated by the HAPPI multi-model ensemble" ESD. Accepted.

Mitchell, D., Allen, M., Hall, J., Muller, B., Rajamani, L., Le Quere, C. "The myriad challenges of the Paris Agreement". Phil. Trans. Roy. Soc. A. Accepted.


Wehner et al. "Changes in tropical cyclones under stabilized 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios as simulated by the Community Atmospheric Model under the HAPPI protocols". Submitted to ESD. https://www.earth-syst-dynam-discuss.net/esd-2017-101/ .

Chevuturi A, Klingaman NP, Turner AG and Hannah S: Projected changes in the Asian-Australian monsoon region in 1.5C and 2.0C global-warming scenarios.  Accepted in Earth’s Future, 30 October 2017.

Hirsch et al. "Biogeophysical impacts of land use change on climate extremes in low emission scenarios: Results from HAPPI-Land". Earth's Future. Accepted.

In review


Gaupp et al. "Increasing risks of multiple breadbasket failure under 1.5 and 2°C global warming" Climatic change. In review. 

Mitchell et al. "Extreme heat-related mortality under targeted Paris Agreement scenarios" Nature Climate Change. In review.

King et al. "On the scaling of local and regional temperature changes from 1.5°C to 2°C of global warming ". Journal of Climate. In review.

Baker et al. "The impact of CO2 concentration at 1.5oC global warming on climate extremes.". Nature. In review.

Doell, P et al. "Risks for the global freshwater system at 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming". ERL. submitted.

Shiogama et al. "1.5ºC goal of Paris agreement will reduce inequities in extreme climate hazards". Nature Comms. submitted.

Trond Iversen, Ingo Bethke, Jens B. Debernard, Lise S. Graff, Øyvind Seland, Mats Bentsen, Alf Kirkevåg, Camille Li, Dirk J. L. Olivié. "The “NorESM1-Happi” used for evaluating differences between a global warming of 1.5°C and 2°C, and the role of Arctic Amplification". GMD. submitted.


Mollard J and Klingaman NP: The influence of air-sea feedbacks on projections of 1.5C and 2.0C warming scenarios.  Submitted to Climate Dynamics, 31 October 2017.

Hosking, A., D. MacLeod, T. Phillips, C. R. Holmes, P. Watson, E. F. Shuckburgh, D. Mitchell. European wind generation within a 1.5°C warmer world. In review ERL.

Liu, Wenbin; Lim, Wee Ho; Sun, Fubao; Mitchell, Dann; Wang, Hong; Chen, Deliang; Bethke, Ingo; Shiogama, Hideo; Fischer, Erich “Global freshwater shortages under Paris Agreement scenarios". Submitted to Earth's Future.

Camille Li, Clio Michel, Lise Seland Graff, Ingo Bethke, Giuseppe Zappa, Erich Fischer, Ben Harvey, Trond Iversen, Martin P. King, Ludwig Lierhammer, Daniel Mitchell, John Scinocca, Hideo Shiogama,
Daithi Stone, Justin J. Wettstein. "Midlatitude atmospheric circulation responses under 1.5 ◦C and 2.0 ◦C warming and implications for regional impacts". Minor corrections in ESD.

Uhe, P., Mitchell. D., Bates, P., Sampson, C., Smith, A., Islam, S. "Enhanced flood risk with 1.5C global warming in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna basin". Submitted to GRL. 

Fahad Saeed and Carl-Friedrich Schleussner. "Robust changes in tropical rainy season length at 1.5°C". Submitted to ERL.



In preperation 


Gavin D. Madakumbura, Hyungjun Kim, Hideo Shiogama, appropriate HAPPIers, Yukiko Hirabayashi and Taikan Oki. "Day-to-day variability of hydrologic cycle in 1.5 and 2 °C warmer worlds"


Shiogama et al. "Mind the Gap: Cross-disciplinary communication challenges for warming limit targets"


Islam et al.

Uhe et al. "Comparisons of methods across difference climate projection techniques"


1.5 degree information

A set of 27 climate extremes indices as defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) is being calculated for the HAPPI simulations for the various experiments and models. The definitions and some applications of these indices can be found in Sillmann et al. (2013a, 2013b). If you are interested in using the ETCCDI extremes indices from the HAPPI simulations, please contact Jana Sillmann (jana.sillmann@cicero.oslo.no) and Nathalie Schaller (nathalie.schaller@cicero.oslo.no).

Climate Analytics key points in the 1.5 degree negotiations