HAPPI publications

Published - 70 Allen, M et al. 2018. Global Warming of 1.5°C. Chapter 1 - Framing and Context. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty. Baker, H et al. 2019. Forced summer stationary waves: the opposing effects of direct radiative forcing and sea surface warming. Climate Dynamics. doi.org/10.1007/s0038 Baker, H et al. 2018. Higher CO2 concentrations increase extreme event risk in a 1.5 °C worldNature Climate Change. doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0190-1 Barcikowska, M et al. 2017. Euro-Atlantic winter storminess and precipitation extremes under 1.5 °C versus 2 °C warming scenarios. Earth System Dynamics. doi.org/10.5194/esd-2017-106 Barcikowska, M et al. 2019. On the potential impact of a half-degree warming on cold and warm temperature extremes in mid-latitude North America. Environmental Research Letters. doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab4dea Bevacqua, E., Shepherd, T., Watson, P., Sparrow, S., Wallom, D. & Mitchell, D. 2021. Larger spatial footprint of wintertime total precipitation extremes in a warmer climate. Geophysical Research Letters. doi/10.1029/2020GL091990  Chevuturi, A et al. 2018. Projected Changes in the Asian‐Australian Monsoon Region in 1.5°C and 2.0°C Global‐Warming Scenarios. Earth’s Future. doi.org/10.1002/2017EF000734 Doell, P et al. 2018. Risks for the global freshwater system at 1.5°C and 2°C global warming. Environmental Research Letters. doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aab792 Faye, B et al. 2018. Impacts of 1.5 versus 2.0 °C on cereal yields in the West African Sudan Savanna. Environmental Research Letters. 13(034014). doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaab40 Fischer, E et al. 2018. Biased Estimates of Changes in Climate Extremes From Prescribed SST Simulations. Geophysical Research Letters. doi.org/10.1029/2018GL079176 Freychet, N et al. 2021. Future changes in the frequency of temperature extremes may be underestimated in tropical and subtropical regions. Commun Earth Environ. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-021-00094-x Gaupp et al. 2019. Increasing risks of multiple breadbasket failure under 1.5 and 2°C global warming. Agricultural Systems. /doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2019.05.010 Graff et al. 2019. Arctic amplification under global warming of 1.5 and 2 °C in NorESM1-Happi. Earth System Dynamics. doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-569-2019 Harrington, L., and Otto, F. 2018. Changing population dynamics and uneven temperature emergence combine to exacerbate regional exposure to heat extremes under 1.5 °C and 2 °C of warming. Environmental Research Letters. 13(034011). doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaaa99 Hirsch, A et al. 2018. Biogeophysical Impacts of Land-Use Change on Climate Extremes in Low-Emission Scenarios: Results From HAPPI-Land. Earth’s Future. doi.org/10.1002/2017EF000744 Hoegh-Guldberg, O et al. 2018. Chapter 3 - Impacts of 1.5°C of Global Warming on Natural and Human Systems. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty. Hosking, A et al. 2018. Changes in European wind energy generation potential within a 1.5°C warmer world. Environmental Research Letters. doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aabf78 Iversen, T et al. 2017. The “NorESM1-Happi” used for evaluating differences between a global warming of 1.5°C and 2°C, and the role of Arctic Amplification. Earth System Dynamics. doi.org/10.5194/esd-2017-115 Jian, D et al. 2020. Effects of 1.5 ℃ and 2 ℃ of Warming on Regional Reference Evapotranspiration and Drying: A Case Study of the Yellow River Basin, China. International Journal of Climatology. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6667 King et al. 2017. Australian climate extremes at 1.5 °C and 2 °C of global warming. Nature Climate Change. doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3296 King et al. 2017. On the linearity of local and regional temperature changes from 1.5°C to 2°C of global warming. Journal of Climate. doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0649.1 Kumari, S et al. 2019. Return period of extreme rainfall substantially decreases under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming: a case study for Uttarakhand, India. Environmental Research Letters. doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab0bce Lee, D et al. 2018. Impacts of half a degree additional warming on the Asian summer monsoon rainfall characteristics. Environmental Research Letters. doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aab55d Lewis, S et al. 2017. Australia’s unprecedented future temperature extremes under Paris limits to warming. Geophysical Research Letters. 44(19), 9947–9956. doi.org/10.1002/2017GL07461 Lewis, S et al. 2017. Regional hotspots of temperature extremes under 1.5°C and 2°C of global mean warming. Weather and Climate Extremes. 44(19), 9947–9956. doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2019.100233 Li, C et al. 2018. Midlatitude atmospheric circulation responses under 1.5°C and 2°C warming and implications for regional impacts. Earth System Dynamics. doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-359-2018 Liu, B et al. 2018. Global wheat production with 1.5 and 2.0°C above pre‐industrial warming. Global Change Biology. doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14542 Liu, W et al. 2018. Global Freshwater availability below normal conditions and population impact under 1.5˚C and 2˚C stabilization scenarios. Geophysical Research Letters. doi.org/10.1029/2018GL078789 Lo, E et al. 2019. Increasing mitigation ambition to meet the Paris Agreement’s temperature goal avoids substantial heat-related mortality in U.S. cities. Science Advances. doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aau4373 Lo, E et al. 2020. UK Climate Projections: Summer daytime and night-time urban heat island changes in England’s major cities. Journal of Climate. doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0961.1 Madakumbura, G et al. 2019. Event-to-event intensification of hydrologic cycle in 1.5 and 2 °C warmer worlds. Nature. doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-39936-2 Mitchell, D. 2021. Climate attribution of heat mortality. Nature Climate Change. doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01049-y Mitchell, D et al. 2020. Concerns over projecting temperature-related deaths associated with injuries. Nature Medicine. doi.org/10.1038/s41591-020-1113-z Mitchell, D et al. 2018. Extreme heat-related mortality avoided under Paris Agreement goals. Nature Climate Change. doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0210-1 Mitchell, D et al. 2017. Half a degree additional warming, prognosis and projected impacts (HAPPI): background and experimental design. Geoscientific Model Development. 10, 571-583. doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-571-2017 Mitchell, D et al. 2016. Realizing the impacts of a 1.5°C warmer world. Nature Climate Change. 6, 735-737. doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3055 Mitchell, D et al. 2019. The day the 2003 European heatwave record was broken. The Lancet Planetary Health. doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(19)30106-8 Mitchell, D et al. 2018. The myriad challenges of the Paris Agreement. Philosophical Transactions of The Royal Society A. 376(2119). doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2018.0066 Mitchell, D et al. 2020. The vertical profile of recent tropical temperature trends: Persistent model biases in the context of internal variability. Environmental Research Letters. doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab9af7 Otto, F et al. 2018. Attributing high-impact extreme events across timescales - a case study of four different types of events. Climate Change. doi.org/10.1007/s1058 Paltan, H et al. 2018. Global implications of 1.5 °C and 2 °C warmer worlds on extreme river flows. Environmental Research Letters. doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aad985 Pfleiderer, P et al. 2019. Increasing risks of apple tree frost damage under climate change. Climatic Change. doi.org/10.1007/s10584-019-02570-y Pfleiderer, P et al. 2019. Summer weather becomes more persistent in a 2 °C world. Nature Climate Change. doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0555-0 Philip, S et al. 2019. Attributing the 2017 Bangladesh floods from meteorological and hydrological perspectives. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences. doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1409-2019 Pretis, F et al. 2017. Uncertain Impacts on Economic Growth When Stabilizing Global Temperatures at 1.5°C or 2°C Warming. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A. doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2016.0460 Rogelj, J. 2018. Chapter 2 - Mitigation pathways compatible with 1.5°C in the context of sustainable development. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty. Rosenzweig, C et al. 2018. Coordinating AgMIP data and models across global and regional scales for 1.5°C and 2.0°C assessments. Philosophical Transactions of The Royal Society A. 376(2119). doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2016.0455 Ruane, A et al. 2018. Climate shifts for major agricultural seasons in +1.5 °C and +2.0 °C Worlds: HAPPI projections and AgMIP modeling scenarios. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2018.05.013 Ruane, A et al. 2018. Biophysical and economic implications for agriculture of +1.5° and +2.0°C global warming using AgMIP Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments. Climate Research. doi.org/10.3354/cr01520 Russo, S et al. 2019. Half a degree and rapid socioeconomic development matter for heatwave risk. Nature Communications. doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-08070-4 Saeed, F et al. 2018. Robust changes in tropical rainy season length at 1.5°C. Environmental Research Letters. doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aab797 Sanderson, B et al. 2017. Community climate simulations to assess avoided impacts in 1.5 and 2°C futures. Earth System Dynamics. 10.5194/esd-8-827-2017 Schleussner, C-F et al. 2018. Crop productivity changes at 1.5°C and 2°C under climate response uncertainty. Environmental Research Letters. doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aab63b Schleussner, C-F et al. 2018. 1.5◦ C Hotspots: Climate Hazards, Vulnerabilities, and Impacts. Annual Reviews. doi.org/10.1146/annurev-environ-102017-025835 Seneviratne, S et al. 2018. Climate extremes, land– climate feedbacks and land-use forcing at 1.5°C. Philosophical Transactions of The Royal Society A. 376(2119). doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2016.0450 Shiogama et al. 2020. Historical and future anthropogenic warming effects on droughts, fires and fire emissions of CO2 and PM2.5 in Equatorial Asia when 2015-like El Nino events occur. Earth System Dynamics. 10.5194/esd-11-435-2020 Solecki, W et al. 2018. City transformations in a 1.5 °C warmer world. Nature Climate Change. doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0100-6 Son, R et al. 2021. Changes in fire weather climatology under 1.5°C and 2.0°C warming. ERL. doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abe675 Sun, C et al. 2019. Changes in extreme temperature over China when global warming stabilized at 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C. Scientific Reports. doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-50036-z Takeshima et al. 2020. Global aridity changes due to differences in surface energy and water partitioning between 1.5°C and 1.5°C warming. Environmental Research Letters. doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab9db3 Timmermans, B et al. 2018. Simulation and analysis of extremehurricane-drivenwave climate under two ocean warming scenarios. Oceanography. doi.org/10.5670/oceanog.2018.218 Uhe, P et al. 2019. Enhanced flood risk with 1.5C global warming in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna basin. ERL. doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab10ee Uhe, P et al. 2020. Method-uncertainty is essential for reliable confidence statements of precipitation projection. AMS. doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0289.1 Verschuur, J et al. 2021. Climate change as a driver of food insecurity in the 2007 Lesotho-South Africa drought. Scientific Reports. doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-83375-x Vosper, E et al. 2019. Building a UK Climate Impacts and Risk Assessment Community. Weather. doi.org/10.1002/wea.3592 Vosper, E et al. 2020. Extreme Caribbean Hurricane Rainfall Mitigated by the Paris Agreement. Environmental Research Letters. doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab9794 Wehner, M et al. 2018. Changes in extremely hot days under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios as simulated by the HAPPI multi-model ensemble. Earth System Dynamics. 9(1), 299-311. doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-299-2018 Wehner, M et al. 2018. Changes in tropical cyclones under stabilized 1.5°C and 2.0°C global warming scenarios as simulated by the Community Atmospheric Model under the HAPPI protocols. Earth System Dynamics. 9(1), 187-195. doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-187-2018 Zhai, R et al. 2018. Spatial-temporal changes in runoff and terrestrial ecosystem water retention under 1.5 and 2°C warming scenarios across China. Earth System Dynamics. Doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-717-2018 Zhou, T et al. 2018. Impact of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming on aircraft takeoff performance in China. Science Bulletin. doi.org/10.1016/j.scib.2018.03.018 In review - 3 Rimi, R et al. 2018. Risks of seasonal extreme rainfall events in Bangladesh under 1.5 and 2.0 degrees’ warmer worlds – How anthropogenic aerosols change the story. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences. In review. doi.org/10.5194/hess-2018-400 Saeed, F et al. 2018. Bias correction of multi-ensemble simulations from the HAPPI model intercomparison project. In review Shiogama, H et al. 2019. 1.5°C goal of Paris agreement will reduce inequities in extreme climate hazards. Nature Comms. Submitted  

1.5 degree information

A set of 27 climate extremes indices as defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) is being calculated for the HAPPI simulations for the various experiments and models. The definitions and some applications of these indices can be found in Sillmann et al. (2013a, 2013b). If you are interested in using the ETCCDI extremes indices from the HAPPI simulations, please contact Jana Sillmann (jana.sillmann@cicero.oslo.no) and Nathalie Schaller (nathalie.schaller@cicero.oslo.no).

Climate Analytics key points in the 1.5 degree negotiations